MRNA

Moderna Inc

Healthcare


Presented:06/16/2020
Price:$64.34
Cap:$23.88B
Current Price:$57.31
Cap:$22.03B

Presented

Date06/16/2020
Price$64.34
Market Cap$23.88B
Ent Value$9.51B
P/E RatioN/A
Book Value$4.43
Div Yield0%
Shares O/S371.22M
Ave Daily Vol21,264,284
Short Int8.18%

Current

Price$57.31
Market Cap$22.03B
Moderna, Inc. engages in the development of transformative medicines based on messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). Its product pipeline includes the following modalities: prophylactic vaccines, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic secreted therapeutics, and systemic intracellular therapeutics. The company was founded by Noubar B. Afeyan, Robert S. Langer, Jr., Derrick J. Rose and Kenneth R. Chien in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, MA.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc (ALXN), AstraZeneca plc (AZN), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN), BioNTech SE (BNTX), CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK), Moderna Inc (MRNA), Novavax Inc (NVAX), Pfizer Inc (PFE)

Highlights

The presenter views Moderna’s (MRNA) ~$26B market cap as unsustainable and is short the stock. Taking a step back, and looking at MRNA from a relative value perspective reveals the issue: Alexion’s market cap is ~$25B and the company generated nearly $5B in revenue in 2019, and BioMarin’s market cap is ~$20B, and it generated $1.7B in 2019 revenue. Based on any fundamental valuation method looking out a few years (DCF, multiple to sales, etc.), MRNA is materially overvalued. In his opinion, investors may need to wait 3-6 months for the stock to break down because of the steady stream of COVID-19 news, the importance of a vaccine, and CEO Stéphane Bancel is always on TV; however, supply chain issues, safety questions, and data from other vaccine programs like AstraZeneca’s are risks that could prompt a selloff in MRNA stock (to the mid-$20s).

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