UAL

United Airlines Holdings Inc

Industrial/Transportation, Consumer


Presented:03/03/2023
Price:$53.06
Cap:$17.36B
Current Price:$64.05
Cap:$21.06B

Presented

Date03/03/2023
Price$53.06
Market Cap$17.36B
Ent Value$33.30B
P/E Ratio24.46x
Book Value$21.09
Div Yield0%
Shares O/S327.09M
Ave Daily Vol8,430,780
Short Int4.88%

Current

Price$64.05
Market Cap$21.06B
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of transportation services. It operates through the following geographical segments: Domestic, Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded on December 30, 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: American Airlines Group Inc (AAL), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)

Highlights

The presenter is short shares of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) to express his bearish outlook on airlines and particularly the US network carriers. Most of these companies (UAL, AAL, DAL, JBLU) are up 20%+ YTD and have rerated back to healthy, mid-cycle multiples. Yet, he argues that guidance from these management teams are aggressive for both Q1 and the full year, and trends are currently as good as they will get. He likes the short position setup because the stocks seem to reflect that these companies will meet earnings expectations, and will have major downside due to significant deleveraging on EBITDA in the likely scenario that they miss. UAL currently trades at $54 per share (+45% YTD) and the presenter sees downside below its 2023 starting point to $30 – $35 based on 2023 EBITDA well below the Street’s $7.4B estimate. 

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Idea Discussion

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