TSCO

Tractor Supply Co.

Consumer


Presented:05/19/2023
Price:$224.23
Cap:$24.57B
Current Price:$300.82
Cap:$32.45B

Presented

Date05/19/2023
Price$224.23
Market Cap$24.57B
Ent Value$30.55B
P/E Ratio23.08x
Book Value$17.46
Div Yield1.69%
Shares O/S109.57M
Ave Daily Vol1,020,006
Short Int5.09%

Current

Price$300.82
Market Cap$32.45B
Tractor Supply Co. engages in the retail sale of farm and ranch products. It operates retail farm & ranch stores and focuses on supplying the lifestyle needs of recreational farmers and ranchers, as well as tradesmen and small businesses. The firm operates the retail stores under the names: Tractor Supply Company, Orscheln Farm & Home, and Petsense. Its product categories include equine, livestock, pet, and small animal, hardware, truck, towing, and tool, heating, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys, recreational clothing and footwear, and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. The company was founded by Charles E. Schmidt, Sr. in 1938 and is headquartered in Brentwood, TN.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Petco Health & Wellness Co Inc (WOOF), Target Corp (TGT), Tractor Supply Co (TSCO), Walmart Inc (WMT)

Highlights

The presenter is short shares of Tractor Supply Co (TSCO), a rural lifestyle retailer with 2,353 stores as of April 1, 2023. TSCO’s sales mix consists of livestock & pet products (50% of 2022 sales); seasonal products, gifts, & toys (21%); hardware, tools & truck (19%); clothing & footwear (7%); and agricultural products (3%). It is viewed as a defensive retailer that can provide investors a safe haven because sales have never declined on a YoY basis, so Street numbers have yet to come down. However, TSCO has been a long-dated COVID overearner and a major inflation beneficiary, which has masked otherwise troubling trends and a value-destructive capex program. He models $10 of 2025 EPS vs. consensus $12.65 and sees ~45% downside from the current $225 per share to $120. 

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