China NPL Cycle & Regional Impact

Macro


This idea was presented at the Excellence in Investing Conference, San Francisco on 10/27/2015.

Highlights

The presenter presented a thesis on an imminent Chinese non-performing loan (NPL) cycle and its potential impact on Chinese and Asian Emerging Market (EM) banks. He is seeing credit stagnate in China, and by his calculations the country is on the verge of a NPL cycle after its banking system increased in size by 400%. This will have a significant impact on the Chinese banking system, but China will “survive;” however, the impact on Asian EMs that have a high trade dependence with China will be much greater. He recommends shorting banks in Asian EM markets that currently trade at a multiple to book value as well as crowded currencies like the Thai bhat.

  • Signing up and creating account with us unlocks this content for you. Contact us today for full access to DeMatteo Research and more.

  • Signing up and creating account with us unlocks this content for you. Contact us today for full access to DeMatteo Research and more.

Request access to DeMatteo Research for full access

Request Access

Already have an account?

Idea Discussion

Commentor 1 - 2 weeks ago

Signing up and creating account with us, unlocks this content for you. Contact us today for full access to DeMatteo Research and more.

Commentor 1 - 2 weeks ago

Signing up and creating account with us, unlocks this content for you. Contact us today for full access to DeMatteo Research and more.

Idea Discussions display submitted commentary from our investor community.

To read and participate in the discussion with the presenter and investor base, request access to DeMatteo

Request Access

Already have an account?

An error occurred loading this content. Try again later or contact us.