UPL

Ultra Petroleum Corp

Energy


Presented:12/06/2017
Price:$8.81
Cap:$1.73B
Current Price:$0.01
Cap:$0.00B

Presented

Date12/06/2017
Price$8.81
Market Cap$1.73B
Ent Value$3.42B
P/E RatioN/A
Book ValueN/A
Div Yield0%
Shares O/S196.33M
Ave Daily Vol2,343,601
Short Int12.82%

Current

Price$0.01
Market Cap$0.00B
Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration, and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties. It focuses on developing a tight gas sand trend located in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming; and assessing, exploring, and developing its position in the Marcellus Shale and other horizons located in the north-central Pennsylvania area of the Appalachian Basin of Pennsylvania. The company was founded on November 14, 1979 and is headquartered in Houston, TX.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Ultra Petroleum Corp (UPL)

Highlights

The presenter is short shares of Ultra Petroleum (UPL) at ~$9, and sees substantial downside risk for shareholders because the Wyoming-based natural gas producer may face challenges executing its horizontal drilling program along the East Flank of the Pinedale Anticline. The basic problem he sees is that, based on his analysis, UPL appears to need $3.00-3.10 gas to reinvest and keep production flat. Henry Hub is ~$2.90 ($/MMBtu), but Waha Hub is presently ~$2.40 and Wyoming gas is losing share to Permian gas (feeding California). If his assessment of the setup and forecast are accurate, upside for UPL stock should be limited and it could trade down to $6 (based on a 6x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to his ~$600mm 2018 EBITDA estimate).

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Idea Discussion

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