TNDM

Tandem Diabetes Care Inc

Healthcare


Presented:12/19/2023
Price:$28.73
Cap:$1.87B
Current Price:$37.61
Cap:$2.46B

Presented

Date12/19/2023
Price$28.73
Market Cap$1.87B
Ent Value$1.27B
P/E RatioN/A
Book Value$4.82
Div Yield0%
Shares O/S65.21M
Ave Daily Vol1,695,362
Short Int14.38%

Current

Price$37.61
Market Cap$2.46B
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. engages in the design, development, and commercialization of products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. Its flagship product, t:slim X2 Insulin Delivery System, operates as a small insulin pump. The company was founded by Paul M. DiPerna on January 27, 2006, and is headquartered in San Diego, CA.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Dexcom Inc (DXCM), Insulet Corp (PODD), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM)

Highlights

The presenter is long shares of Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM), a manufacturer of insulin pumps with a mix of ~90% Type 1 and ~10% Type 2. The company sells the t:slim X2 insulin pump with its Control-IQ algorithm. Control-IQ is an automated insulin delivery (AID) system that automatically doses insulin based on continuous glucose readings, improving the lives of patients due to less tracking, fewer injections, and higher time and range (i.e., improved control of blood glucose). Control-IQ is viewed as the best algorithm on the market, allowing TNDM to build a base of ~400k pumpers (75% in the US), which has proven sticky despite recent competitive launches. The increased competition and a slowdown ahead of a new product cycle has caused the company to miss on earnings the last three quarters. However, growth should inflect positively in 2024 based on several meaningful catalysts (DXCM integration, ABT integration, Mobi launch), dynamics which appear underappreciated by the market. He models 60% – 70% upside from the current $29 share price by underwriting a 20x valuation on his 2028 operating profit and discounting that back to the end of 2024.

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Idea Discussion

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