EXC

Exelon Corp

Utilities, Energy


Presented:11/14/2019
Price:$44.14
Cap:$42.91B
Current Price:$40.56
Cap:$40.58B

Presented

Date11/14/2019
Price$44.14
Market Cap$42.91B
Ent Value$85.45B
P/E Ratio18.7x
Book Value$32.95
Div Yield3.26%
Shares O/S972.11M
Ave Daily Vol6,013,547
Short IntN/A

Current

Price$40.56
Market Cap$40.58B
Exelon Corp. operates as a utility services holding company, which engages in the energy generation, power marketing, and energy delivery business. The company operates through the following segments: Mid Atlantic, Midwest, New England, New York, Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and other Power Regions. The Mid-Atlantic segment represents operations in the eastern half of PJM, which includes New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, the District of Columbia and parts of Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The Midwest segment represents operations in the western half of PJM, which includes portions of Illinois, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky and Tennessee, and the United States footprint of MISO, excluding MISO's Southern Region, which covers all or most of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, the remaining parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio not covered by PJM, and parts of Montana, Missouri and Kentucky. The New England (NE) segment represents the operations within (International Standards Organization) ISO-NE covering the states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. The New York (NY) segment represents operations within ISO-NY, which covers the state of New York in its entirety. The ERCOT segment represents operations within Electric Reliability Council of Texas, covering most of the state of Texas. Exelon was founded in February 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Exelon Corp (EXC), Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)

Highlights

The presenter is long shares of Exelon Corp (EXC), following the company’s disclosure of two separate subpoenas as part of a wide-ranging federal corruption probe into Illinois state Senator, Martin Sandoval. He thinks this creates an opportunity for a fair bit of upside in the stock with this discrete event in terms of the political process. Management is not saying a lot, but he handicaps the investigation being resolved in 8 months time without hefty fines imposed. Since June, when the first subpoena was disclosed, the stock has been down 15% vs. the XLU. Fast forward to today, the presenter views this as a SOTP story with the regulated business trading at ~19x, equating to ~$40 of value. The non-regulated side of the business, their nuclear fleet, is worth $7 - $15. The presenter believes the stock is worth $50 - $60 depending on how the investigation plays out, and is currently trading at $44. He also points out that you can hedge this utility exposure by shorting the XLU. 

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Idea Discussion

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