BMBL

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), Bumble Inc (BMBL), Match Group Inc (MTCH)

Highlights

The presenter is long shares of Bumble Inc (BMBL), which IPO’d in February 2021, closed up 64% on its first day trading, and was expected to be a major reopening play. BMBL ended up performing better the first half of 2021 than the second half, and there were also some self-inflicted wounds in Q3. There was a sell-off in November, followed by more recent weakness along with other growth stocks and companies exposed to Russia. BMBL has some exposure to Russia in terms of revenues and employees, which created concerns given the ongoing conflict, but Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine only accounted for a combined 2.8% of total revenues in 2021. The company ended up reporting a solid Q4’21 on March 8, and the Q1 guidance was in line with the Street despite the Street not backing out $20MM of Russian revenue and $20MM of FX benefit. Despite gaining 45% post earnings, the stock is still down 37% YTD. Ascribing a 20x 2023 EBITDA multiple, which was essentially its trough valuation until about a month ago, upside to $30 per share seems reasonable.