ATHA

Athira Pharma Inc

Healthcare, Event Driven/Special Sit


Presented:03/25/2022
Price:$12.74
Cap:$0.48B
Current Price:$0.44
Cap:$0.02B

Presented

Date03/25/2022
Price$12.74
Market Cap$0.48B
Ent Value$0.19B
P/E RatioN/A
Book ValueN/A
Div Yield0%
Shares O/S37.35M
Ave Daily Vol276,041
Short Int8.55%

Current

Price$0.44
Market Cap$0.02B
Athira Pharma, Inc. engages in the development of small molecules to restore neuronal health and stop neurodegeneration. Its product pipeline include ATH-1017, ATH-1019/20, and ATH-1018. The company was founded by Leen Kawas, John Wright, Lewis Rumpler, and Joseph Harding in March 2011 and is headquartered in Seattle, WA.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Athira Pharma Inc (ATHA), Biogen Inc (BIIB)

Highlights

The presenter is long shares of Athira Pharma Inc (ATHA), which he views as a call on the upcoming data for its Alzheimer’s drug Fosgonimeton. Based on the data from prior drug studies, paired with the current study (ACT-AD)’s larger sample population and longer treatment duration, he underwrites a probability of success (PoS) of 80%+. The stock has had a choppy history, IPOing in September 2020 at $17 per share, trading above $30 a few months later, and then plummeting below $10 following the resignation of the CEO and stabilizing at its current $12 share price. At its current valuation, ATHA has a $448MM market cap, a net cash position of $236MM, and a $212MM EV. The ACT-AD data will be released in the back half of Q2, at which point he sees 10x upside in short order if the data comes out positive as he expects, and 30% – 40% downside in the worst-case scenario, an asymmetric risk/return profile that he attributes to the company’s other pipeline drugs and cash position. 

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Idea Discussion

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