CCL

Carnival Corp. - Ordinary Shares (Paired Stock)

Consumer, Credit


Presented:03/30/2022
Price:$19.60
Cap:$22.27B
Current Price:$21.55
Cap:$27.31B

Presented

Date03/30/2022
Price$19.60
Market Cap$22.27B
Ent Value$52.41B
P/E RatioN/A
Book Value$9.05
Div Yield0%
Shares O/S1,136.29M
Ave Daily Vol38,825,740
Short Int10.93%

Current

Price$21.55
Market Cap$27.31B
Carnival Corp. engages in the operation of cruise ships. It operates through the following business segments: North America and Australia (NAA) Cruise, Europe and Asia (EA) Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Others. The North America and Australia (NAA) Cruise segment includes the Carnival Cruise Line, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn. The Europe and Asia (EA) Cruise Operations segment consists of AIDA, Costa, Cunard, and P&O Cruises (UK). The Cruise Support segment represents port destinations and private islands for the benefit of its cruise brands. The Tour and Other segment operates hotel and transportation operations of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, FL.

Publicly traded companies mentioned herein: Carnival Corp (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

Highlights

The presenter is short shares of Carnival Corp (CCL), which he expects to need another dilutive round of equity raising. The biggest risk to his short thesis is the Russia-Ukraine war ending suddenly, causing oil prices to plummet, European travel to loosen, and the stock to increase 10%, but he hedges that risk by pairing the short position with a long position in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), which he considers a better business in terms of management quality, topline and cost exposure, and positioning to execute going forward. He models CCL’s 2023 EBITDA and EPS below the Street and sees almost 50% downside from the current $20 share price to $11 using the company’s pre-COVID valuation of 11x forward earnings. 

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Idea Discussion

Commentor 1 - 2 weeks ago

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